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🌎 This Week In Climate: Why Food Keeps Getting More Expensive

Quick reminders:

Why Food Keeps Getting More Expensive

By Abigail Bassett 

You’ve probably heard about “personalized pricing” at food retailers like Walmart and Kroger, a tool that can be used to raise the price of a bottle of water on a hot day. And if you’ve had the same luck as a growing chorus of Redditors in the US, you’ve probably taken home a rotten onion or head of garlic in the last six months, and paid more for it. 

Climate change is by no means the only factor behind the rising cost of food, but extreme weather events are emerging as a consistent driver of price shocks that show up in the grocery bill for households across the world. “Climateflation”, as it has become known, represents the cost that climate impacts are already imposing on the world’s food system, and it is expected to yield far-reaching consequences if warming trends on our planet continue as expected.

The impact of the shifting climate is showing up in supermarkets worldwide. In the UK and across Europe, farmers have reported hay failures, stressed olive and citrus groves, and vegetable losses during recent heat waves and floods. Those costs roll through supply chains and land on consumers' plates, and researchers now have a name for it: Climateflation. Climateflation occurs when weather shocks rapidly increase food prices, and hotter long-term temperatures keep that price inflation elevated for months.

This summer in the US’s corn belt, the heat and humidity made pollination a nail-biter. Corn needs a narrow window of temperate, not-too-humid conditions to pollinate properly. High daytime and warm nighttime temperatures slash pollen viability and kernel set. Farmers from Michigan to Mississippi reported pollination problems and delayed planting thanks to persistent rains, even as favorable late-season weather now points to a big national harvest—illustrating the new volatility producers live with as the climate shifts. 

Climateflation has yet to show up in hard numbers, just yet, however. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations tracks prices globally, and the most recent FAO Food Price Index shows that August prices were essentially flat versus July. It does, however, show that those prices this year are still higher than last year, especially for meat, sugar, and vegetable oils while cereals and dairy dipped. Meat prices hit a new record in August as drought and spiraling feed costs keep supplies tight.

The FAO says it expects record global cereal output in 2025, led by maize in the U.S., Brazil, and Mexico. However, it's worth noting that the topline hides regional losers where heat and drought will cut yields. 

It’s not just about food getting more expensive at the grocery store—it’s also about what foods may disappear from our diets entirely as the planet warms. As we reported last summer, climate change is threatening the very future of some of our most beloved foods like coffee, chocolate, wine, bananas, rice, and shellfish. 

Each of these staples faces unique vulnerabilities. Coffee plants need stable cool temperatures that are rapidly disappearing thanks to climate change. According to one study, 50% of coffee-growing areas could become unsuitable for the crops if current warming trends continue. Coffee prices jumped last week thanks to extreme weather events in key coffee-growing areas like Vietnam and Brazil, which prompted some Brazilian producers to hike raw bean prices. 

Cocoa, on the other hand, thrives only within a narrow equatorial band that has been hit by heatwaves, pests, and floods. West Africa is the source of two-thirds of the world’s cocoa and countries like the Ivory Coast and Ghana are already seeing the impact of climate change on this year’s harvest. Growers there anticipate a 10% decline in the upcoming 2025/26 season, which has forced far-away food megaconglomerates, such as Hershey’s to adapt to fading cocoa supply. 

The economic impacts of climate-driven food inflation are likely to extend far beyond the checkout counter. There’s a growing concern that climateflation could exacerbate existing socioeconomic issues, namely income inequality. Food price shocks after extreme weather events tend to hit lower-income households hardest, since they spend the largest share of their income on food.  

And relief doesn’t always come once the storm clouds roll back. A 2024 study from the European Central Bank and Potsdam Institute found that heat-driven shocks don’t just cause one-off spikes; they keep food and headline inflation elevated for up to a year, particularly in hotter regions. 

Those spikes in costs can, in turn, reshape diets and impact global health. When fresh produce prices rise sharply, many households will substitute with cheaper, calorie-dense processed foods, worsening public health outcomes. Researchers at Yale Climate Connections noted last fall that rising heat accelerated spoilage in the food system, making fresh fruits and vegetables harder to keep on shelves and further driving up costs. 

Governments are scrambling for solutions in the face of rising temperatures and lower harvests.  In India, policymakers are weighing new storage investments after extreme heat and erratic rainfall drove up prices of onions and tomatoes this summer. In Europe, farmers are demanding compensation for heat- and flood-related crop failures. Their pressure could push governments to expand subsidies for climate-resilient farming, though so far, the EU has weakened green rules on farmers. 

As climateflation becomes an increasingly visible force in global food systems, the challenge ahead extends far beyond adapting to higher grocery bills. The convergence of rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and supply chain vulnerabilities threatens to fundamentally reshape what we eat, how much we pay for it, and who can afford adequate nutrition. While policymakers grapple with immediate responses, the underlying driver of these disruptions continues to intensify. Without significant climate action and sustained investment in resilient food systems, climateflation risks becoming not just an economic burden, but a defining feature of global food security in the decades to come.

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